{"id":15425,"date":"2025-08-13T14:00:20","date_gmt":"2025-08-13T11:00:20","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/mld-index.info\/?p=15425"},"modified":"2025-08-14T16:49:09","modified_gmt":"2025-08-14T13:49:09","slug":"moldova-in-pragul-crizei-reducerea-remitentelor-depopularea-si-riscurile-sistemice","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/mld-index.info\/ro\/analytics\/moldova-in-pragul-crizei-reducerea-remitentelor-depopularea-si-riscurile-sistemice\/","title":{"rendered":"Moldova \u00een pragul crizei: reducerea remiten\u021belor, depopularea \u0219i riscurile sistemice"},"content":{"rendered":"

Remiten\u021bele migran\u021bilor moldoveni \u00een \u021bara lor de origine au fost mult timp un pilon cheie al economiei moldovene\u0219ti. \u00cen 2023, acestea s-au ridicat la aproximativ 2 miliarde de dolari, echivalentul a aproximativ 12% din PIB-ul \u021b\u0103rii. Aceste fonduri au asigurat stabilitatea cererii de consum, au sus\u021binut nivelul de trai al familiilor, \u00een special \u00een zonele rurale, \u0219i au compensat par\u021bial deficitul cronic al bugetului de stat. Cu toate acestea, \u00een 2025 se observ\u0103 o tendin\u021b\u0103 alarmant\u0103: potrivit economistului Veaceslav Ioni\u021b\u0103, transferurile oficiale nete \u00een primul trimestru al anului 2025 au sc\u0103zut la 356 de milioane de dolari, cea mai mic\u0103 cifr\u0103 din ultimii trei ani.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Expertul subliniaz\u0103 c\u0103 statisticile oficiale reflect\u0103 doar \u201ev\u00e2rful aisbergului\u201d. El estimeaz\u0103 fluxurile financiare reale, inclusiv canalele informale \u2013 livrarea fizic\u0103 de numerar, transferul de bani prin intermediul unor ter\u021be p\u0103r\u021bi, utilizarea cardurilor bancare str\u0103ine \u0219i a caselor de schimb valutar \u2013 la aproximativ 3 miliarde de dolari pe an.<\/p>\n

Cu toate acestea, chiar \u0219i \u021bin\u00e2nd cont de aceste fluxuri informale, fluxul total de fonduri din str\u0103in\u0103tate prezint\u0103 semne de \u00eencetinire. Sc\u0103derea se datoreaz\u0103 mai multor factori: sc\u0103derea num\u0103rului de moldoveni care lucreaz\u0103 \u00een str\u0103in\u0103tate, recesiunea economic\u0103 \u00een \u021b\u0103rile receptore, precum \u0219i intensificarea controalelor \u0219i restric\u021biilor valutare, \u00een special \u00een Rusia \u0219i \u021b\u0103rile CSI, unde tr\u0103ie\u0219te o parte semnificativ\u0103 a diasporei.<\/p>\n

Diaspora migreaz\u0103 irevocabil<\/h3>\n

Conform Serviciului de Informa\u021bii \u0219i Securitate, peste 1,2 milioane de moldoveni lucreaz\u0103 \u00een str\u0103in\u0103tate. \u00cen mod tradi\u021bional, una dintre principalele destina\u021bii pentru migra\u021bia for\u021bei de munc\u0103 a fost Rusia, precum \u0219i alte \u021b\u0103ri CSI – Ucraina, Belarus, Kazahstan. Aceste \u021b\u0103ri au atras moldovenii prin salarii relativ mari (comparativ cu Moldova), proximitate lingvistic\u0103 \u0219i mediu cultural. Cu toate acestea, \u00een ultimii ani, situa\u021bia s-a schimbat. Conflictul ruso-ucrainean, controlul sporit al migra\u021biei, tensiunile politice \u0219i sanc\u021biunile economice au avut un impact negativ asupra oportunit\u0103\u021bilor pentru migran\u021bii moldoveni.<\/p>\n

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\u00cen contextul instabilit\u0103\u021bii geopolitice \u0219i al \u201econtrolului statal\u201d din Rusia, diaspora moldoveneasc\u0103 se afl\u0103 sub o supraveghere atent\u0103 din partea autorit\u0103\u021bilor, ceea ce \u00eei limiteaz\u0103 nu doar activitatea economic\u0103, ci \u0219i cea politic\u0103. Acest lucru creeaz\u0103 efectul de \u201eireversibilitate\u201d \u0219i apatie. Migran\u021bii, tem\u00e2ndu-se de represiune sau pierz\u00e2ndu-\u0219i speran\u021ba unei \u00eembun\u0103t\u0103\u021biri a situa\u021biei din Moldova, sunt din ce \u00een ce mai pu\u021bin predispu\u0219i s\u0103 se \u00eentoarc\u0103 \u00een patria lor. Iar cei care se \u00eentorc se confrunt\u0103 adesea cu lipsa locurilor de munc\u0103, bariere birocratice \u0219i sprijin insuficient din partea statului. Drept urmare, \u00een ciuda programelor existente, cum ar fi PARE 1+1 \u0219i DAR 1+3, care vizeaz\u0103 reintegrarea \u0219i stimularea investi\u021biilor, randamentul lor real r\u0103m\u00e2ne sc\u0103zut.<\/p>\n

C\u00e2teva cifre: \u00een ultimii ani, structura fluxurilor migratorii s-a schimbat dramatic: 39% din totalul emigran\u021bilor \u00een 2024 sunt persoane cu v\u00e2rsta cuprins\u0103 \u00eentre 20 \u0219i 39 de ani (for\u021b\u0103 de munc\u0103 activ\u0103); 26% sunt persoane sub 19 ani, ceea ce indic\u0103 plecarea unor familii \u00eentregi.<\/p>\n

Migra\u021bia net\u0103 \u00een 2023 a fost de minus 32,6 mii de persoane – mai multe persoane au plecat dec\u00e2t au sosit. Datele Biroului Na\u021bional de Statistic\u0103 pentru anul 2024 nu sunt \u00eenc\u0103 definitive din cauza lipsei informa\u021biilor complete privind trecerile de frontier\u0103.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

\u00cen acela\u0219i timp, migra\u021bia intern\u0103 este \u00een cre\u0219tere: 17,2 mii de persoane \u0219i-au schimbat domiciliul \u00een interiorul \u021b\u0103rii \u00een 2024, dintre care 93,6% sunt \u00een v\u00e2rst\u0103 de munc\u0103, \u00een principal cu v\u00e2rsta cuprins\u0103 \u00eentre 25 \u0219i 49 de ani. Popula\u021bia ora\u0219elor a crescut cu 5,5 mii de persoane, \u00een principal datorit\u0103 exodului masiv din sate.<\/p>\n

Depopulare accelerat\u0103<\/h3>\n

Unul dintre cele mai alarmante procese din Moldova modern\u0103 este declinul rapid al popula\u021biei. Economistul Veaceslav Ioni\u021b\u0103 a declarat c\u0103 \u021bara pierde 115 persoane pe zi. Numai \u00een 2024, Moldova a pierdut 42 de mii de locuitori. \u201eDac\u0103 aceast\u0103 tendin\u021b\u0103 continu\u0103, atunci \u00een doar 10 ani risc\u0103m s\u0103 pierdem o popula\u021bie echivalent\u0103 cu popula\u021bia Chi\u0219in\u0103ului\u201d, este sigur Ioni\u021b\u0103.<\/p>\n

Principalele motive ale depopul\u0103rii sunt emigrarea masiv\u0103 \u0219i cre\u0219terea natural\u0103 negativ\u0103. \u00cen 2024, migra\u021bia net\u0103 a fost de -32,6 mii de persoane. \u00cen acela\u0219i timp, tinerii cu v\u00e2rste cuprinse \u00eentre 20 \u0219i 29 de ani p\u0103r\u0103sesc \u021bara cel mai activ – acesta este grupul demografic care ar trebui s\u0103 stea la baza cre\u0219terii economice. Statisticile arat\u0103 c\u0103, \u00een 2024, 2,7% dintre tinerii din aceast\u0103 categorie de v\u00e2rst\u0103 au p\u0103r\u0103sit \u021bara. Potrivit lui Ioni\u021b\u0103, sc\u0103derea ratei generale de emigrare de la 2,5% \u00een 2022\u20132023 la 1,3% \u00een 2024 nu este un semn de \u00eembun\u0103t\u0103\u021bire, ci \u201epentru c\u0103 nu a mai r\u0103mas nimeni s\u0103 plece\u201d.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Cre\u0219terea natural\u0103 este, de asemenea, negativ\u0103: \u00een 2024, au murit cu 9,9 mii de oameni mai mult dec\u00e2t s-au n\u0103scut. Rata natalit\u0103\u021bii este de 9,8 la 1000 de locuitori – una dintre cele mai sc\u0103zute din Europa. Num\u0103rul de copii n\u0103scu\u021bi a sc\u0103zut cu 2% fa\u021b\u0103 de 2023. \u00cen acela\u0219i timp, mortalitatea infantil\u0103 a crescut de la 10,0 la 11,8 la 1000 de na\u0219teri vii, ceea ce indic\u0103 o deteriorare a calit\u0103\u021bii asisten\u021bei medicale \u0219i a condi\u021biilor sociale.<\/p>\n

Num\u0103rul tot mai mare de pensionari<\/h3>\n

\u00cen paralel cu reducerea popula\u021biei apte de munc\u0103, num\u0103rul pensionarilor este \u00een cre\u0219tere. Potrivit fostului deputat Alexandru Slusari, la 1 aprilie 2025, \u00een Republica Moldova erau \u00eenregistra\u021bi 670.671 de pensionari, \u00een timp ce num\u0103rul for\u021bei de munc\u0103 active (persoane cu v\u00e2rsta de 15 ani \u0219i peste) a sc\u0103zut la 807,9 mii de persoane. \u00cen acela\u0219i timp, doar 662 de mii dintre ace\u0219tia sunt lucr\u0103tori angaja\u021bi care pl\u0103tesc efectiv impozite \u0219i contribu\u021bii la sistemul de asigur\u0103ri sociale \u0219i de s\u0103n\u0103tate.<\/p>\n

\u201eSe dovede\u0219te c\u0103 exist\u0103 mai pu\u021bin de un lucr\u0103tor per pensionar, ceea ce este departe de norma european\u0103 de cel pu\u021bin 2,5 lucr\u0103tori per pensionar\u201d, consider\u0103 expertul.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Slusari nume\u0219te aceast\u0103 situa\u021bie o \u201epiramid\u0103 financiar\u0103 la nivel na\u021bional\u201d. Sistemul de securitate social\u0103, inclusiv sistemul de pensii, devine instabil, deoarece nu poate func\u021biona din surse interne.<\/p>\n

Statul este obligat s\u0103 acopere deficitul bugetar prin \u00eemprumuturi externe \u0219i remiten\u021be ale migran\u021bilor. \u00cen perioada ianuarie-mai 2025, deficitul bugetului de stat a dep\u0103\u0219it 6,8 miliarde de lei, iar cheltuielile au crescut cu 19,2% fa\u021b\u0103 de anul precedent. \u00cen acela\u0219i timp, veniturile din proiectele externe au sc\u0103zut cu aproape o treime. Potrivit exper\u021bilor, un astfel de model de finan\u021bare nu poate fi sustenabil pe termen lung.<\/p>\n

Politici publice ineficiente \u0219i control asupra fluxurilor valutare<\/p>\n

\u00cen loc s\u0103 stimuleze intr\u0103rile de capital \u0219i s\u0103 creeze condi\u021bii pentru \u00eentoarcerea migran\u021bilor, politicile publice sunt adesea represive \u0219i contraproductive. \u00cen 2023, \u00een Republica Moldova a intrat \u00een vigoare o lege care impune prezentarea unui act de identitate pentru tranzac\u021biile valutare de peste 10 mii de lei. Cu toate acestea, a\u0219a cum a men\u021bionat deputatul Radu Marian, aceast\u0103 lege poate fi u\u0219or ocolit\u0103 prin efectuarea mai multor tranzac\u021bii de 10 mii de lei.<\/p>\n

Ca r\u0103spuns, autorit\u0103\u021bile inten\u021bioneaz\u0103 s\u0103 creeze o baz\u0103 de date unic\u0103 pentru toate tranzac\u021biile valutare de la casele de schimb valutar, pentru a urm\u0103ri tranzac\u021biile suspecte \u0219i a combate sp\u0103larea banilor. De\u0219i aceste m\u0103suri sunt justificate din punct de vedere al combaterii corup\u021biei \u0219i a amenin\u021b\u0103rilor hibride, ele pot descuraja migran\u021bii care aduc bani acas\u0103. Controalele mai stricte, cerin\u021ba de a documenta originea fondurilor \u0219i o atitudine suspicioas\u0103 fa\u021b\u0103 de sumele mari pot \u00eencuraja dezvoltarea \u00een continuare a economiei subterane.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Omul de afaceri Igor Kujba critic\u0103 dublurile standarde: statul le cere cet\u0103\u021benilor de r\u00e2nd s\u0103 explice originea a 50 de mii de euro economisi\u021bi \u00een peste 20 de ani de munc\u0103 \u00een str\u0103in\u0103tate, dar nu \u00eei \u00eentreab\u0103 pe parlamentari de unde au ob\u021binut dona\u021bii similare. El solicit\u0103 simplificarea importului de valut\u0103 pentru cet\u0103\u021benii moldoveni care lucreaz\u0103 \u00een str\u0103in\u0103tate \u0219i concentrarea pe combaterea evaziunii fiscale de c\u0103tre marile corpora\u021bii, mai degrab\u0103 dec\u00e2t persecutarea micilor comercian\u021bi \u00een pie\u021be.<\/p>\n

Moldova la o r\u0103scruce<\/h3>\n

\u00cen prezent, economia \u0219i sistemul social al \u021b\u0103rii noastre depind de factori externi (\u0219i prost gestiona\u021bi): remiten\u021be, ajutor interna\u021bional \u0219i stabilitatea demografic\u0103. Cu toate acestea, to\u021bi ace\u0219ti factori sunt amenin\u021ba\u021bi. Reducerea remiten\u021belor, plecarea tinerilor, cre\u0219terea num\u0103rului de pensionari \u0219i politica de stat ineficient\u0103 creeaz\u0103 condi\u021bii pentru o criz\u0103 sistemic\u0103.<\/p>\n

\u201eReducerea popula\u021biei Republicii Moldova nu este doar o problem\u0103 statistic\u0103. Este o criz\u0103 a economiei, a sferei sociale \u0219i o amenin\u021bare la adresa securit\u0103\u021bii na\u021bionale. Nu exist\u0103 for\u021b\u0103 de munc\u0103, nu exist\u0103 natalitate, nu exist\u0103 viitor\u201d, spune Veaceslav Ioni\u021b\u0103.<\/p>\n

\u201eAnul trecut, \u00een Moldova s-au n\u0103scut tot at\u00e2\u021bia copii ca acum 120 de ani. \u021aara se stinge \u2013 f\u0103r\u0103 oameni, f\u0103r\u0103 economie, f\u0103r\u0103 viitor. Nu s-a construit nimic \u00een \u021bar\u0103, dar se preg\u0103tesc s\u0103 v\u00e2nd\u0103 facilit\u0103\u021bi strategice, inclusiv portul Giurgiule\u0219ti. Acest guvern a cauzat daune de sute de miliarde statului \u0219i poporului. Din prima zi a venirii PAS la putere, am spus: \u00abAcesta este cel mai neprofesionist, cel mai nepreg\u0103tit \u0219i antistatal guvern \u0219i parlament din \u00eentreaga istorie a Moldovei independente\u00bb, \u00eemp\u0103rt\u0103\u0219e\u0219te opinia fostului pre\u0219edinte moldovean Vladimir Voronin cu colegul s\u0103u.<\/p>\n

F\u0103r\u0103 schimb\u0103ri fundamentale, Moldova risc\u0103 s\u0103 repete soarta Greciei din 2012 sau s\u0103 cad\u0103 \u00eentr-o groap\u0103 de datorii din care va fi extrem de greu s\u0103 ias\u0103. Viitorul \u021b\u0103rii depinde de posibilitatea de a transforma migra\u021bia dintr-o catastrof\u0103 demografic\u0103 \u00eentr-un avantaj strategic.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Remiten\u021bele migran\u021bilor moldoveni \u00een \u021bara lor de origine au fost mult timp un pilon cheie al economiei moldovene\u0219ti. \u00cen 2023, acestea s-au ridicat la aproximativ 2 miliarde de dolari, echivalentul a aproximativ 12% din PIB-ul \u021b\u0103rii. Aceste fonduri au asigurat stabilitatea cererii de consum, au sus\u021binut nivelul de trai al familiilor, \u00een special \u00een zonele […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":15428,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[94,98],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-15425","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-analytics","8":"category-analytics-economie-si-finante"},"yoast_head":"\nMoldova \u00een pragul crizei: reducerea remiten\u021belor, depopularea \u0219i riscurile sistemice - MLD-Index<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Remiten\u021bele migran\u021bilor moldoveni \u00een \u021bara lor de origine au fost mult timp un pilon cheie al economiei moldovene\u0219ti. \u00cen 2023, acestea\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/mld-index.info\/ro\/analytics\/moldova-in-pragul-crizei-reducerea-remitentelor-depopularea-si-riscurile-sistemice\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"ro_RO\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Moldova \u00een pragul crizei: reducerea remiten\u021belor, depopularea \u0219i riscurile sistemice - 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