{"id":3580,"date":"2023-05-03T14:00:43","date_gmt":"2023-05-03T11:00:43","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/mld-index.info\/?p=3580"},"modified":"2023-05-03T21:22:56","modified_gmt":"2023-05-03T18:22:56","slug":"perspectivele-dialogului-turco-gagauz-in-contextul-proceselor-electorale-din-turcia","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/mld-index.info\/ro\/analytics\/perspectivele-dialogului-turco-gagauz-in-contextul-proceselor-electorale-din-turcia\/","title":{"rendered":"Perspectivele dialogului turco-g\u0103g\u0103uz \u00een contextul proceselor electorale din Turcia"},"content":{"rendered":"

La o r\u0103scruce de drumuri<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u00cen 2005-2008, Ankara \u0219i-a format opiniile cu privire la dispozi\u021bia Mondial\u0103 a for\u021belor \u0219i locul s\u0103u \u00een acest joc, iar aceast\u0103 viziune a fost foarte diferit\u0103 de ceea ce a fost „\u00eenainte de Erdogan”.<\/p>\n

Turcia \u0219i-a dat seama c\u0103 interesele geopolitice ale NATO \u0219i ale altor juc\u0103tori nu iau \u00eentotdeauna \u00een considerare stabilitatea \u0219i securitatea frontierelor sale. Aceasta \u00eenseamn\u0103 c\u0103 timpul urm\u0103ririi orbe\u0219te a cursului Occidentului s \u2013 a \u00eencheiat-cel pu\u021bin \u00een timp ce Erdogan este la putere.<\/p>\n

Dac\u0103, \u00een urma rezultatelor alegerilor din 14 mai, liderul turc se va schimba, acest lucru va duce automat la o sl\u0103bire a pozi\u021biilor turce\u0219ti \u00een Caucazul de Sud, Orientul Mijlociu, Asia Central\u0103 \u0219i Africa.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

\u0218i dup\u0103 aceea, Turcia se va afla \u00eentr \u2013 o situa\u021bie foarte asem\u0103n\u0103toare cu Moldova-o a\u0219teptare nesf\u00e2r\u0219it\u0103 de aderare la Uniunea European\u0103. \u0218i va dura mult timp s\u0103 a\u0219tepta\u021bi, deoarece cooperarea cu Rusia nu va fi iertat\u0103 at\u00e2t de repede.<\/p>\n

Alegerile din mai din Turcia nu sunt doar o alegere geopolitic\u0103, ci \u0219i o alegere a cursului politicii interne. Deoarece odat\u0103 cu dezvoltarea unui scenariu negativ, Turcia va fi aruncat\u0103 \u00eenapoi cu ani \u00een urm\u0103 \u0219i nu numai \u00een ceea ce prive\u0219te pozi\u021biile de influen\u021b\u0103, ci \u0219i \u00een ceea ce prive\u0219te economia intern\u0103, rentabilitatea acesteia \u0219i, prin urmare, nivelul de trai al popula\u021biei.<\/p>\n

G\u0103g\u0103uzia \u00een pericol<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u00cen cazul \u00eenfr\u00e2ngerii Partidului Justi\u021biei \u0219i a liderului s\u0103u Erdogan, fra\u021bii mai mici ai \u021b\u0103rii apar\u021bin\u00e2nd Organiza\u021biei Statelor turcice vor fi f\u0103r\u0103 protec\u021bie.<\/p>\n

Iar G\u0103g\u0103uzia va fi una dintre aceste victime. Acum, ATO are trei atuuri \u00een m\u00e2nec\u0103 simultan, care \u00eei permit s\u0103 se simt\u0103, dac\u0103 nu liber\u0103, atunci cel pu\u021bin relativ protejat\u0103: sprijinul Rusiei \u0219i Turciei \u0219i rezultatele referendumului de acum nou\u0103 ani, care fac din G\u0103g\u0103uzia, de fapt, un stat independent de Moldova.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

O astfel de” g\u00e2ndire liber\u0103”, desigur, nu va l\u0103sa Teritoriile s\u0103 scape nici cu Uniunea European\u0103, nici cu v\u00e2rful extrem de pro-occidental al Guvernului moldovean, condus de pre\u0219edintele Sandu \u0219i protejatul s\u0103u Prim-ministru Rechan. Nu degeaba la \u00eenceputul anului au legalizat o lege care permite utilizarea unei resurse administrative \u00eempotriva oric\u0103ror \u00eenc\u0103lc\u0103ri ale integrit\u0103\u021bii teritoriale a Moldovei-a\u0219a-numita „lege separatist\u0103”.<\/p>\n

Dup\u0103 ce a pierdut sprijinul unui frate puternic \u00een Turcia, G\u0103g\u0103uzia va trebui s\u0103 a\u0219tepte ajutorul Rusiei, care este deja sl\u0103bit\u0103 de confruntarea prelungit\u0103 cu Ucraina. \u0218i f\u0103r\u0103 sprijinul celor dou\u0103 mari puteri, g\u0103g\u0103uzilor le va fi foarte greu s\u0103 fac\u0103 fa\u021b\u0103 „str\u00e2ngerii \u0219uruburilor” \u2013 la urma urmei, noua lege a dezlegat de fapt m\u00e2inile autorit\u0103\u021bilor moldovene\u0219ti.<\/p>\n

Problema kurzilor<\/strong><\/p>\n

Pe l\u00e2ng\u0103 problema ucrainean\u0103, factorul turc devine nu mai pu\u021bin crucial. \u0218i nu numai \u00een ceea ce prive\u0219te pozi\u021bia \u021b\u0103rii pe scena mondial\u0103, ci \u0219i \u00een ceea ce prive\u0219te rela\u021biile cu kurzii, care reprezint\u0103 aproximativ 22% din popula\u021bia \u021b\u0103rii. \u00cen \u021b\u0103rile de top \u00een ceea ce prive\u0219te num\u0103rul kurzilor, nu numai Turcia, Iran, Irak \u0219i Siria, ci \u0219i unele state europene.<\/p>\n

O schimbare a dispozi\u021biei for\u021belor cu posibila plecare a lui Erdogan va re\u00eenvia confruntarea anterioar\u0103 dintre turci \u0219i kurzi \u2013 ceea ce \u00eenseamn\u0103 c\u0103 tulbur\u0103rile nu sunt excluse \u00een tot Orientul Arab.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Unul dintre focarele de tensiune dintre Turcia \u0219i Occident a fost pozi\u021bia \u021b\u0103rii cu privire la aderarea Finlandei \u0219i Suediei la NATO. Desigur, dac\u0103 ar fi posibil, Turcia ar bloca ambele aplica\u021bii \u2013 dar atunci furia comunit\u0103\u021bii interna\u021bionale ar fi mai mult dec\u00e2t evident\u0103. Referindu-se la faptul c\u0103 ambele \u021b\u0103ri finan\u021beaz\u0103 separati\u0219tii kurzi, Turcia a mers la o m\u0103sur\u0103 cu jum\u0103tate de inim\u0103 \u0219i a dat „und\u0103 verde” doar Finlandei. Se poate vorbi mult timp despre motivele unei astfel de alegeri, dar la o scar\u0103 nu este at\u00e2t de important care dintre \u021b\u0103rile sus\u021binute de Ankara \u2013 a fost important pentru ea s\u0103 \u00eempiedice aprobarea ambelor cereri \u0219i cine prime\u0219te „meciul scurt” \u00een acest caz nu este at\u00e2t de important.<\/p>\n

Aderarea la NATO, \u00een loc de o p\u00e2rghie de influen\u021b\u0103, devine bastonul notoriu \u00een roata pe care Turcia \u00eens\u0103\u0219i \u0219i-a stabilit-o.<\/p>\n

Care sunt \u0219ansele?<\/strong><\/p>\n

De fapt, alegerile din 14 mai sunt arma de pornire care va lansa multe procese globale \u0219i va afecta echilibrul de putere nu numai \u00een Orientul Mijlociu sau \u00een Uniunea European\u0103, ci \u0219i \u00een \u00eentreaga lume.<\/p>\n

Occidentul colectiv nu \u00eei prime\u0219te pe Erdogan \u0219i pe asocia\u021bii s\u0103i la conducerea Turciei. Ankara \u00een\u021belege acest lucru \u0219i \u00eencearc\u0103 din r\u0103sputeri s\u0103 men\u021bin\u0103 un echilibru \u0219ubred \u00eentre Occident \u0219i Est, partea pro-american\u0103 a globului \u0219i Rusia.<\/p>\n

Aceasta este o sarcin\u0103 dificil\u0103. Dar Turcia a ajuns prea departe, pe de o parte, iar pe de alt\u0103 parte, \u00ee\u0219i aminte\u0219te bine vremurile c\u00e2nd era una dintre \u021b\u0103rile „lumii a treia”. Mai mult, nu a fost cu mult timp \u00een urm\u0103.<\/p>\n

Pierderea pozi\u021biilor geopolitice actuale ar fi catastrofal\u0103 pentru Ankara \u0219i nu numai pentru Ankara, ci \u0219i pentru statele dependente de aceasta \u0219i asociate acesteia. \u00cen special, rezultatul alegerilor va afecta semnificativ nu numai politica Republicii Moldova fa\u021b\u0103 de G\u0103g\u0103uzia, ci \u0219i statutul autonomiei ca atare.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

La o r\u0103scruce de drumuri \u00cen 2005-2008, Ankara \u0219i-a format opiniile cu privire la dispozi\u021bia Mondial\u0103 a for\u021belor \u0219i locul s\u0103u \u00een acest joc, iar aceast\u0103 viziune a fost foarte diferit\u0103 de ceea ce a fost „\u00eenainte de Erdogan”. Turcia \u0219i-a dat seama c\u0103 interesele geopolitice ale NATO \u0219i ale altor juc\u0103tori nu iau \u00eentotdeauna […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":3583,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[94,96],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-3580","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-analytics","8":"category-analytics-politica"},"yoast_head":"\nPerspectivele dialogului turco-g\u0103g\u0103uz \u00een contextul proceselor electorale din Turcia - MLD-Index<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Tocmai a avut loc primul tur de scrutin \u00een G\u0103g\u0103uzia, care nu a determinat c\u00e2\u0219tig\u0103torul, ci a pus accent - candida\u021bii pro-ru\u0219i au ...\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/mld-index.info\/analitika\/perspektivy-turetsko-gagauzskogo-dialoga-v-kontekste-elektoralnyh-protsessov-v-turtsii\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"ro_RO\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Perspectivele dialogului turco-g\u0103g\u0103uz \u00een contextul proceselor electorale din Turcia - 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