{"id":4970,"date":"2023-07-18T14:00:17","date_gmt":"2023-07-18T11:00:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/mld-index.info\/?p=4970"},"modified":"2023-08-17T17:23:02","modified_gmt":"2023-08-17T14:23:02","slug":"vom-muri-ca-mamutii-depopularea-in-moldova","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/mld-index.info\/ro\/analytics\/vom-muri-ca-mamutii-depopularea-in-moldova\/","title":{"rendered":"Vom muri ca mamu\u021bii? Depopularea \u00een Moldova"},"content":{"rendered":"

Mai r\u0103u dec\u00e2t acum o jum\u0103tate de secol<\/strong><\/p>\n

„Am ascultat cu aten\u021bie raportul PAS dup\u0103 doi ani de guvernare, se vorbe\u0219te at\u00e2t de mult despre infla\u021bie, despre pr\u0103bu\u0219irea PIB-ului, despre deficitul comercial, despre tarife, despre s\u0103r\u0103cirea oamenilor… Dar acum voi da o singur\u0103 cifr\u0103: 88.000 de oameni, ace\u0219tia sunt oameni care \u0219tiu \u0219i vor s\u0103 lucreze acas\u0103, dar au plecat [Moldova] \u00een ace\u0219ti doi ani de guvernare PAS”, a comentat ex-premierul Vlad Filat despre situa\u021bie.<\/p>\n

Declinul popula\u021biei este o problem\u0103 care cu siguran\u021b\u0103 nu a ap\u0103rut \u00een ace\u0219ti doi ani. \u00cen termen de 30 de ani de la pr\u0103bu\u0219irea URSS, moldovenii au devenit de 1,5 ori mai pu\u021bin, astfel \u00eenc\u00e2t \u00een 2021 600 de mii de oameni au tr\u0103it \u00een \u021bara noastr\u0103 mai pu\u021bin dec\u00e2t \u00een 1960 \u00eendep\u0103rtat – doar 2,9 milioane (\u0219i conform altor date \u2013 2,6 milioane).<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Pierderea maxim\u0103 a reziden\u021bilor este observat\u0103 \u00een Transnistria. \u00cencep\u00e2nd cu anii 90, popula\u021bia regiunii a sc\u0103zut de 2,4 ori. „\u00cen acest ritm, vom disp\u0103rea ca na\u021biune”, spune expertul economic Vyacheslav Ionitse.<\/p>\n

Motivele pentru ceea ce se \u00eent\u00e2mpl\u0103 sunt simple: mortalitatea ridicat\u0103 combinat\u0103 cu fertilitatea sc\u0103zut\u0103 (din 2011 p\u00e2n\u0103 \u00een 2015, mortalitatea a fost chiar mai mare dec\u00e2t rata natalit\u0103\u021bii), emigrarea \u0219i plecarea temporar\u0103 din \u021bar\u0103 „pentru munc\u0103” – apropo, acestea din urm\u0103 sunt cele mai multe, potrivit sociologilor, aceasta este de aproximativ 1 milion de oameni. <\/p>\n

\u00cen plus, rata declinului popula\u021biei este \u00een cre\u0219tere, deoarece numai \u00een ultimii 8 ani 260 de mii de oameni au p\u0103r\u0103sit \u021bara pentru totdeauna.<\/p>\n

Dragii mei b\u0103tr\u00e2ni…<\/strong><\/p>\n

Mai mult de jum\u0103tate din \u021bara noastr\u0103 tr\u0103ie\u0219te \u00een sate, iar declinul popula\u021biei este cel mai vizibil acolo: din 2014 p\u00e2n\u0103 \u00een 2022, popula\u021bia permanent\u0103 a satelor a sc\u0103zut cu 13,3%.<\/p>\n

Potrivit Biroului Na\u021bional de Statistic\u0103 de anul trecut, din toate regiunile \u021b\u0103rii, o mic\u0103 cre\u0219tere a popula\u021biei a fost \u00eenregistrat\u0103 doar la Chi\u0219in\u0103u, iar cea mai mic\u0103 sc\u0103dere a fost \u00een B\u0103l\u021bi \u0219i G\u0103g\u0103uzia pro\u2013ruse. G\u0103g\u0103uzia are cea mai t\u00e2n\u0103r\u0103 popula\u021bie din Moldova, fiecare al cincilea copil sub 15 ani locuie\u0219te aici.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

„Ne confrunt\u0103m cu o serie de dificult\u0103\u021bi demografice, Popula\u021bia \u021b\u0103rii este \u00een sc\u0103dere, iar popula\u021bia \u00een ansamblu \u00eemb\u0103tr\u00e2ne\u0219te. Tendin\u021bele arat\u0103 c\u0103 dup\u0103 2030-2040, mai mult de jum\u0103tate din popula\u021bie va avea peste 50 de ani. Trebuie s\u0103 ne preg\u0103tim pentru noua realitate demografic\u0103”, a declarat ministrul Muncii \u0219i Protec\u021biei Sociale, Alexey Buzu.
\nAcum, aproape un sfert din popula\u021bia \u021b\u0103rii sunt persoane \u00een v\u00e2rst\u0103 de pensionare. <\/p>\n

Potrivit ministrului, \u00een timpul guvern\u0103rii Partidului PAS, pensia minim\u0103 a fost aproape dublat\u0103. „Datele arat\u0103 c\u0103 s\u0103r\u0103cia \u00een r\u00e2ndul v\u00e2rstnicilor este \u00een sc\u0103dere”, a spus Buzu. Cu toate acestea, ministrul nu a explicat c\u0103 s\u0103r\u0103cia este redus\u0103 nu din cauza cre\u0219terii pensiilor, ci din cauza pierderii statistice a persoanelor \u00een v\u00e2rst\u0103 din motive naturale. Iar cre\u0219terea pensiilor a fost de 2 ori egalat\u0103 de infla\u021bia de 13,9% \u00een 2021 \u0219i 28,7% (conform unor date \u2013 aproximativ 34%) \u00een 2022. Cre\u0219terea pensiilor a fost de fapt „m\u00e2ncat\u0103” de cre\u0219terea pre\u021burilor.<\/p>\n

\u0218i din nou despre numere<\/strong><\/p>\n

Dac\u0103 guvernul nu se gr\u0103be\u0219te s\u0103 ofere persoanelor \u00een v\u00e2rst\u0103 o b\u0103tr\u00e2ne\u021be decent\u0103 \u0219i confortabil\u0103, atunci este necesar s\u0103 ne g\u00e2ndim la perspectivele rezervelor de munc\u0103. <\/p>\n

Salariul minim \u00een \u021bar\u0103 de la \u00eenceputul anului 2023 este de 4000 lei (\u00een 2022 \u2013 pu\u021bin peste 2935 lei). \u0218i asta \u00een ciuda faptului c\u0103 la numeroase greve de anul trecut, oamenii au cerut s\u0103 creasc\u0103 „salariul minim” cel pu\u021bin la 5.000 de lei.<\/p>\n

Sub sau pu\u021bin peste acest minim c\u00e2\u0219tigat cu greu, 25% dintre moldoveni c\u00e2\u0219tig\u0103 de la 3 la 5 mii de lei, 15% dintre cet\u0103\u021beni c\u00e2\u0219tig\u0103 chiar mai pu\u021bin – mai pu\u021bin de 3 mii de lei. O treime din popula\u021bie este „pe linia de plutire” – Biroul Na\u021bional de Statistic\u0103 a raportat c\u0103 de la 5 la 10 mii de lei primesc p\u00e2n\u0103 la 33%.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

\u00cen acela\u0219i timp, 25% dintre cet\u0103\u021beni lucreaz\u0103 informal \u0219i chiar mai mul\u021bi primesc salarii \u00een plicuri \u2013 aproximativ o treime din popula\u021bia ocupat\u0103. Aceasta este o durere de cap pentru guvernul PAS, deoarece sectorul din umbr\u0103 al economiei este subliniat nu numai \u00een interiorul \u021b\u0103rii: exper\u021bii din UE numesc aceast\u0103 problem\u0103 unul dintre principalele motive care \u00eempiedic\u0103 intrarea \u00een zona euro, at\u00e2t de dorit pentru politicieni.<\/p>\n

Potrivit lui Stas Madan, expert la Centrul Analitic Expert-Grup, o propor\u021bie mare de „salarii negre” este o consecin\u021b\u0103 a nemul\u021bumirii fa\u021b\u0103 de pachetul social, care este furnizat pe l\u00e2ng\u0103 salariile oficiale, precum \u0219i a refuzului de a pl\u0103ti impozite. \u0218i cu c\u00e2t sunt mai pu\u021bine impozite, cu at\u00e2t este mai dificil s\u0103 calculezi \u0219i s\u0103 g\u0103se\u0219ti rezerve pentru cre\u0219terea pensiilor. Un cerc vicios.<\/p>\n

Migra\u021bie \u0219i geopolitic\u0103<\/strong><\/p>\n

Evenimentele din 2022 nu au ad\u0103ugat culori curcubeu situa\u021biei migra\u021biei. Tem\u00e2ndu \u2013 se de r\u0103zboiul care se desf\u0103\u0219ura la grani\u021b\u0103 \u0219i de deteriorarea situa\u021biei economice, mul\u021bi au p\u0103r\u0103sit \u021bara-\u0219i s-au dovedit a nu fi at\u00e2t de gre\u0219i\u021bi. <\/p>\n

Moldova a fost inundat\u0103 nu numai de refugia\u021bi ucraineni, ci \u0219i de bunuri ucrainene, care au pus \u00een pericol economia na\u021bional\u0103 \u0219i au amestecat c\u0103r\u021bi cu produc\u0103torii agricoli locali. De o lun\u0103, fermierii care lovesc pe str\u0103zile capitalei \u00eencearc\u0103 prin c\u00e2rlig sau prin escroc s\u0103 elimine subven\u021biile de la stat pentru a-\u0219i p\u0103stra produc\u021bia. P\u00e2n\u0103 \u00een prezent, a fost scoas\u0103 doar o parte, ceea ce, potrivit reprezentan\u021bilor Asocia\u021biei for\u021ba Fermierilor, nu este suficient pentru a proteja fermierii mici \u0219i mijlocii de faliment.<\/p>\n

Cu toate acestea, nu a devenit at\u00e2t de u\u0219or s\u0103 p\u0103r\u0103si\u021bi Moldova: \u00eentre\u021binerea celui mai mare aeroport r\u0103m\u00e2ne \u00een discu\u021bie, aproape to\u021bi transportatorii aerieni au p\u0103r\u0103sit \u021bara, iar cei care au r\u0103mas \u00eent\u00e2rzie zborurile, umfl\u00e2nd pre\u021burile biletelor – \u00een general, fac totul pentru a provoca nemul\u021bumiri \u00een r\u00e2ndul cet\u0103\u021benilor. Un exemplu viu este recenta \u00een\u0219el\u0103ciune dubl\u0103 pentru scaunele pentru copii din zborul Fly one.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Un scandal recent este legat \u0219i de avia\u021bie, \u00een timpul c\u0103ruia un cet\u0103\u021bean Tadjik a \u00eempu\u0219cat un gr\u0103nicer care i-a interzis intrarea \u00een \u021bar\u0103. Guvernul Rechan se retrage \u00een mod constant din acordurile CSI, for\u021bele noastre de securitate nu primesc informa\u021bii despre infractorii din statele vecine \u0219i determin\u0103 dreptul de a intra \u00een Moldova „cu ochii” \u0219i nu pe baza rapoartelor opera\u021bionale. Acest lucru amenin\u021b\u0103 \u00een viitor cu o cre\u0219tere necontrolat\u0103 a criminalit\u0103\u021bii, pe de o parte, \u0219i o posibil\u0103 „cortin\u0103 de fier”, pe de alt\u0103 parte, concet\u0103\u021benii no\u0219tri sunt siguri.<\/p>\n

„Nu aveam de g\u00e2nd s\u0103 p\u0103r\u0103sesc Moldova pentru totdeauna. Dar c\u00e2nd am fost evacua\u021bi \u00een iarb\u0103 \u0219i c\u00e2nd s-a \u0219tiut c\u0103 un b\u0103rbat a tras cu pistolul la un gr\u0103nicer, dup\u0103 ce a aflat c\u0103 nu are voie \u00een Moldova, m-am g\u00e2ndit. Mul\u021bi oameni nu au voie s\u0103 vin\u0103 la noi. Rudele \u0219i prietenii nu pot veni la mine. Nu pot pleca \u00een str\u0103in\u0103tate, Nici m\u0103car \u00een vacan\u021b\u0103 \u00een Turcia – \u0219i dintr-o dat\u0103 nu m\u0103 vor l\u0103sa s\u0103 m\u0103 \u00eentorc \u00een patria mea. Uit\u0103 – te la ceea ce PAS \u0219i-a adus pre\u0219edintele-oamenii se apuc\u0103 de arme”, a \u00eemp\u0103rt\u0103\u0219it una dintre rudele care au v\u0103zut \u00een ziua tragediei de la aeroport, care a dorit s\u0103 r\u0103m\u00e2n\u0103 anonim\u0103.<\/p>\n

Nu vom mai fi noi?<\/strong><\/p>\n

Pe l\u00e2ng\u0103 faptul c\u0103 Guvernul nu rezolv\u0103 probleme de lung\u0103 durat\u0103 precum patch-urile joase \u0219i neoficiale, continu\u0103 s\u0103 intimideze popula\u021bia \u0219i s\u0103 „str\u00e2ng\u0103 \u0219uruburile”. Printre aceste m\u0103suri se num\u0103r\u0103 legea separatismului adoptat\u0103 \u00een acest an \u0219i o serie de modific\u0103ri ale normelor care reglementeaz\u0103 activit\u0103\u021bile for\u021belor de securitate. Conform acestor amendamente, orice miting pa\u0219nic poate fi calificat drept antiguvernamental\u2013\u0219i acolo consecin\u021bele nu vor \u00eent\u00e2rzia s\u0103 apar\u0103. Prin urmare, compatrio\u021bii no\u0219tri trebuie s\u0103 tr\u0103iasc\u0103 \u00eentr \u2013 o atmosfer\u0103 de fric\u0103 \u0219i restric\u021bii-sau s\u0103 plece \u00een c\u0103utarea unei vie\u021bi mai bune. <\/p>\n

Conducerea PAS \u00ee\u0219i dore\u0219te cu adev\u0103rat s\u0103 fie ca Europa \u2013 \u0219i cel pu\u021bin \u00een anumite privin\u021be au reu\u0219it – ne referim la tendin\u021ba paneuropean\u0103 de \u00eemb\u0103tr\u00e2nire a popula\u021biei indigene. Cu toate acestea, este pu\u021bin probabil ca afluxul de arabi \u0219i africani s\u0103 ne amenin\u021be \u021bara: cu astfel de salarii, este pu\u021bin probabil s\u0103 fim o bucat\u0103 gustoas\u0103 pentru migran\u021bi. Dar guvernul \u00een\u021belege c\u0103 literalmente \u00een 5-10 ani pur \u0219i simplu nu va fi nimeni care s\u0103 lucreze \u00een \u021bar\u0103 \u0219i \u00eencearc\u0103 s\u0103 atrag\u0103 for\u021ba de munc\u0103 din str\u0103in\u0103tate \u00eentr-un alt mod. Au fost deja adoptate modific\u0103ri la legile care elimin\u0103 necesitatea unei vize \u0219i a unui permis de munc\u0103 pentru cet\u0103\u021benii UE \u0219i o serie de alte \u021b\u0103ri dezvoltate care vin \u00een Moldova timp de p\u00e2n\u0103 la 3 luni.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

\u0218i dac\u0103 p\u00e2n\u0103 \u00een 2030-2040 mai mult de jum\u0103tate din popula\u021bia \u021b\u0103rii noastre va avea peste 50 de ani, este posibil ca p\u00e2n\u0103 la mijlocul secolului doar g\u0103g\u0103uzii s\u0103 r\u0103m\u00e2n\u0103 \u00een \u021bara noastr\u0103 dac\u0103 reu\u0219esc s\u0103 realizeze o cre\u0219tere natural\u0103 a popula\u021biei \u2013 sau moldovenii nu vor mai tr\u0103i deloc.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Mai r\u0103u dec\u00e2t acum o jum\u0103tate de secol „Am ascultat cu aten\u021bie raportul PAS dup\u0103 doi ani de guvernare, se vorbe\u0219te at\u00e2t de mult despre infla\u021bie, despre pr\u0103bu\u0219irea PIB-ului, despre deficitul comercial, despre tarife, despre s\u0103r\u0103cirea oamenilor… Dar acum voi da o singur\u0103 cifr\u0103: 88.000 de oameni, ace\u0219tia sunt oameni care \u0219tiu \u0219i vor s\u0103 […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":4973,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[94,95,98,96],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-4970","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-analytics","8":"category-analytics-cultura-si-sport","9":"category-analytics-economie-si-finante","10":"category-analytics-politica"},"yoast_head":"\nVom muri ca mamu\u021bii? 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