{"id":5002,"date":"2023-08-03T14:00:11","date_gmt":"2023-08-03T11:00:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/mld-index.info\/?p=5002"},"modified":"2023-08-17T19:23:15","modified_gmt":"2023-08-17T16:23:15","slug":"se-va-prabusi-lei-in-curand-ceea-ce-ne-ameninta","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/mld-index.info\/ro\/analytics\/se-va-prabusi-lei-in-curand-ceea-ce-ne-ameninta\/","title":{"rendered":"Se va prabusi lei in curand? Ceea ce ne amenin\u021b\u0103"},"content":{"rendered":"

Situa\u021bia valutar\u0103<\/strong><\/p>\n

Motivul unei noi discu\u021bii despre soarta leului a fost prognoza oficial\u0103 a Ministerului Finan\u021belor, care afirma c\u0103 \u00een urm\u0103torii 3 ani cursul leului va sc\u0103dea doar: de la 19,16 lei pe dolar, \u0219i 21,38 lei pe dolar. euro \u00een 2024 la 19,62 lei \u0219i respectiv 22,20 lei \u00een 2026.<\/p>\n

A\u0219a cum au raportat la \u00eenceputul lunii iulie persoane din interiorul b\u0103ncilor moldovene\u0219ti, cursul de schimb al monedei na\u021bionale depinde numai de pozi\u021bia B\u0103ncii Na\u021bionale.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

\u201eSunt semne clare ale unui trend sezonier pe pia\u021b\u0103, c\u00e2nd nu exist\u0103 cump\u0103r\u0103tori de dolari \u0219i euro. \u00cen astfel de perioade, situa\u021bia de pe pia\u021b\u0103 depinde de autoritate de reglementare: dac\u0103 acesta este hot\u0103r\u00e2t s\u0103 cumpere moneda, cursul leului nu se va \u00eent\u0103ri, fluctua\u021biile sale \u00een sus \u0219i \u00een jos nu vor dep\u0103\u0219i c\u00e2\u021biva bani pe zi. Dac\u0103 BNM \u00eent\u00e2rzie intrarea pe pia\u021b\u0103, atunci cursul monedei na\u021bionale are \u0219anse s\u0103 revin\u0103 la nivelul de 17,70 MDL:1 dolar\u201d, au comentat bancherii.<\/p>\n

Potrivit persoanelor din interior, vara, cererea \u0219i oferta de moned\u0103 scad \u00een mod tradi\u021bional \u0219i \u201ese creeaz\u0103 impresia c\u0103 to\u021bi agen\u021bii economici au p\u0103r\u0103sit \u021bara \u00een vacan\u021b\u0103\u201d, iar p\u00e2n\u0103 \u00een toamn\u0103, presiunea monedei \u00een numerar este \u00een cre\u0219tere, ceea ce este asociat cu sosirea migran\u0163ilor de munc\u0103 \u00een patria lor.<\/p>\n

Exist\u0103 sezonalitate?<\/strong><\/p>\n

Potrivit acelora\u0219i persoane din interior, situa\u021bia cu cursul leului se \u00eembun\u0103t\u0103\u021be\u0219te de obicei p\u00e2n\u0103 la jum\u0103tatea lunii iulie. Graficele arat\u0103 \u00eens\u0103 c\u0103 din 22 iulie a avut loc o depreciere continu\u0103 a leului \u00een raport cu dolarul, respectiv euro. Acum pentru 1 leu moldovenesc pute\u021bi cump\u0103ra cu 0,056 dolari, respectiv 0,051 euro. Adev\u0103rat, p\u00e2n\u0103 la jum\u0103tatea lunii iulie, rata a fost \u0219i mai mic\u0103.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

\u00cen discu\u021biile finan\u021batorilor, exist\u0103 p\u0103rerea c\u0103 leul se \u00eent\u0103re\u0219te \u00een mod tradi\u021bional prim\u0103vara. Expertul economic Vlad Grati a analizat datele din anul 2000 si a aflat ca timp de opt ani 2 cursul leului a crescut de la inceputul primaverii pana la sfarsitul lui, timp de 7 ani a scazut semnificativ si timp de 7 ani cursul s-a modificat usor. Astfel, economistul a infirmat ideea c\u0103 exist\u0103 o sezonalitate de prim\u0103var\u0103 pentru leu.<\/p>\n

Potrivit lui Grati, cea mai dificil\u0103 perioad\u0103 pentru moneda na\u021bional\u0103 a fost iarna anului 2022 – acest lucru, de altfel, este confirmat de datele de pe grafic. Motivul au fost doi factori: Banca Na\u021bional\u0103 a Moldovei a trecut la sc\u0103derea ratei cheie mai devreme dec\u00e2t alte \u021b\u0103ri, iar pe fondul crizei combustibililor, Moldovagaz \u0219i Energocom au importat gaze la pre\u021buri record pentru a evita colapsul energetic. Prin aceste ac\u021biuni, companiile de combustibil \u0219i energie au condus dolarul \u0219i euro la un maxim critic.<\/p>\n

Leul puternic ucide economia?<\/strong><\/p>\n

O serie de exper\u021bi consider\u0103 c\u0103 deprecierea leului (doar \u00een iunie, moneda na\u021bional\u0103 a sc\u0103zut cu 5,3% fa\u021b\u0103 de euro \u0219i cu 3,7% fa\u021b\u0103 de dolar) a fost cauzat\u0103 de o cre\u0219tere a importurilor.<\/p>\n

\u201eAvem o economie atipic\u0103, consum\u0103m mult \u0219i consum\u0103m ceea ce import\u0103m. Afacerile cump\u0103r\u0103 \u00eentotdeauna valut\u0103 pentru import, dar acum o face \u00een volume mai mari dec\u00e2t \u00eenainte\u201d, a comentat expertul economic Viorel Girbu.<\/p>\n

Potrivit acestuia, afacerile cump\u0103r\u0103 acum mai mult\u0103 moned\u0103 dec\u00e2t poate oferi pia\u021ba. \u201eAcoperirea cererii\u201d este acum la nivelul de 80%\u201d, a men\u021bionat Grybu.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Potrivit Biroului Na\u021bional de Statistic\u0103, \u00een ianuarie-mai, exporturile din Moldova \u00een str\u0103in\u0103tate au fost mai mici cu 8% fa\u021b\u0103 de aceea\u0219i perioad\u0103 din 2022. \u00cen acela\u0219i timp, m\u0103rfurile produse pe plan intern la export sunt de doar 67,4% – veniturile din acestea au sc\u0103zut cu aproape 20%, iar restul este reexportul m\u0103rfurilor importate \u00een Moldova.<\/p>\n

Viorel Girbu crede c\u0103 exist\u0103 o interdependen\u021b\u0103 \u00eentre importuri \u0219i cursul leului: de \u00eendat\u0103 ce leul cre\u0219te, volumele de produc\u021bie scad, iar cererea intern\u0103 este satisf\u0103cut\u0103 de importuri \u0219i invers.<\/p>\n

O serie de economi\u0219ti consider\u0103 c\u0103 Banca Na\u021bional\u0103 subestimeaz\u0103 \u00een mod artificial cursul de schimb al leului.<\/p>\n

\u201eUn leu puternic ucide economia. Banca Na\u021bional\u0103 nu face mi\u0219c\u0103ri ascu\u021bite \u00een lateral. \u00cen contextul posibilelor rezultate slabe \u00een agricultur\u0103 \u0219i al faptului c\u0103 economia noastr\u0103 se redreseaz\u0103 mai lent dec\u00e2t ne-am dori, plus, av\u00e2nd \u00een vedere politica dur\u0103 a Ucrainei de devalorizare a hrivnei, suntem obliga\u021bi s\u0103 depreciem moneda\u201d, a declarat Veaceslav Ioni\u021b\u0103, IDIS Viitorul. expert.<\/p>\n

Ce urmeaza?<\/strong><\/p>\n

At\u00e2t Vlad Grati, c\u00e2t \u0219i Viorel Girbu sunt siguri c\u0103 anul acesta nu vor exista modific\u0103ri fundamentale ale cursului monedei na\u021bionale. Cu toate acestea, pe viitor, leul este amenin\u021bat cu devalorizare, deoarece cursul actual este \u00een continuare mai mare dec\u00e2t cel real. Supraevalu\u00e2nd cursul de schimb \u00een 2022, Banca Na\u021bional\u0103 a luptat \u00eempotriva infla\u021biei, \u00ee\u0219i aminte\u0219te doctorul \u00een \u0219tiin\u021be economice Tatyana Laryushina.<\/p>\n

\u201eRata de devalorizare a leului va depinde de modul \u00een care blocul economic face fa\u021b\u0103 sectoarelor care stimuleaz\u0103 cre\u0219terea economic\u0103, de c\u00e2t de mult sprijin\u0103 exportatorii \u0219i de c\u00e2t vor costa resursele energetice\u201d, este sigur\u0103 Laryushina.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

P\u00e2n\u0103 acum, FMI prognozeaz\u0103 cre\u0219terea economiei moldovene\u0219ti p\u00e2n\u0103 la sf\u00e2r\u0219itul acestui an cu 2%, iar \u00een 2024 – cu doar 4,3%. \u00cen combina\u021bie cu un num\u0103r mare de \u00eemprumuturi \u0219i o situa\u021bie suspendat\u0103 cu furnizarea de resurse energetice – aceasta din urm\u0103, de altfel, Ministerul Economiei \u00eencearc\u0103 \u00een grab\u0103 s\u0103 rezolve, acest lucru creeaz\u0103 un fundal nu foarte pozitiv. Nu degeaba agen\u021bia Moldsilva a raportat deja la \u00eenceputul lunii august c\u0103 a stabilit pre\u021buri reduse la lemn de foc \u0219i c\u0103rbune – situa\u021bia \u00een care o ton\u0103 de c\u0103rbune a costat anul trecut 10.000 de lei nu se va mai repeta, agen\u021bia este sigur\u0103. Ne aprovizion\u0103m \u00een avans, concet\u0103\u021beni, \u00een timp ce pre\u021bul a sc\u0103zut.<\/p>\n

Veaceslav Ioni\u021b\u0103 a remarcat c\u0103 deprecierea leului ar \u00eenmul\u021bi valoarea imobilelor din Moldova, dar ar putea juca \u00een m\u00e2na unui num\u0103r de cet\u0103\u021beni, \u00een special a celor care primesc remiten\u021be de la rudele din str\u0103in\u0103tate. Dar nu va cre\u0219te acest lucru migra\u021bia deja mare din \u021bar\u0103, c\u00e2nd o propor\u021bie semnificativ\u0103 a popula\u021biei apte de munc\u0103 pleac\u0103 \u201ela munc\u0103\u201d \u0219i nu se mai \u00eentoarce niciodat\u0103?<\/p>\n

\u00cen iunie, leul a crescut brusc, ceea ce a st\u00e2rnit confuzie printre mul\u021bi. Potrivit doctorului \u00een \u0219tiin\u021be economice Svyatoslav Michalache, motivul este sc\u0103derea consumului popula\u021biei – oamenii \u00ee\u0219i str\u00e2ng cureaua, respectiv, importurile sunt de asemenea \u00een sc\u0103dere.<\/p>\n

Potrivit economistului, pre\u021bul minim al dolarului ar trebui s\u0103 fie de 17,20 lei, altfel \u201eguvernul s-ar putea confrunta cu mari probleme \u00een \u00eendeplinirea obliga\u021biilor bugetare\u201d.<\/p>\n

\u201eDac\u0103 dolarul scade sub acest nivel, va lovi \u0219i mai tare veniturile bugetare. \u00cen aceste condi\u021bii, Banca Na\u021bional\u0103 \u0219i Ministerul Finan\u021belor ar trebui s\u0103 aleag\u0103 o strategie de interven\u021bie pentru a preveni o \u00eent\u0103rire mai semnificativ\u0103 a leului moldovenesc\u201d, a spus Mihalache.<\/p>\n

Astfel, exper\u021bii consemneaz\u0103 c\u0103 stabilitatea economic\u0103 relativ\u0103 \u00een \u021bara noastr\u0103 este posibil\u0103 doar datorit\u0103 unei monede na\u021bionale slabe, altfel nu exist\u0103 alt\u0103 cale. La urma urmei, produc\u021bia intern\u0103 nu poate concura cu importurile \u0219i pur \u0219i simplu nu exist\u0103 nic\u0103ieri \u00een care puterea executiv\u0103 s\u0103 ia venituri la buget, cu excep\u021bia reexportului \u0219i a jocului la cursuri de schimb.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Situa\u021bia valutar\u0103 Motivul unei noi discu\u021bii despre soarta leului a fost prognoza oficial\u0103 a Ministerului Finan\u021belor, care afirma c\u0103 \u00een urm\u0103torii 3 ani cursul leului va sc\u0103dea doar: de la 19,16 lei pe dolar, \u0219i 21,38 lei pe dolar. euro \u00een 2024 la 19,62 lei \u0219i respectiv 22,20 lei \u00een 2026. A\u0219a cum au raportat […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":5003,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[94,98],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-5002","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-analytics","8":"category-analytics-economie-si-finante"},"yoast_head":"\nSe va prabusi lei in curand? Ceea ce ne amenin\u021b\u0103 - MLD-Index<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Se vorbe\u0219te despre deprecierea critic\u0103 a leului de vreo 10 ani. 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