{"id":5906,"date":"2023-10-24T14:00:32","date_gmt":"2023-10-24T11:00:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/mld-index.info\/?p=5906"},"modified":"2023-11-18T13:20:03","modified_gmt":"2023-11-18T10:20:03","slug":"salvati-sau-falimentati-ce-se-va-intampla-cu-economia-moldovei-in-cazul-incetarii-finantarii-occidentale","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/mld-index.info\/ro\/analytics\/salvati-sau-falimentati-ce-se-va-intampla-cu-economia-moldovei-in-cazul-incetarii-finantarii-occidentale\/","title":{"rendered":"Salva\u021bi sau falimenta\u021bi: ce se va \u00eent\u00e2mpla cu economia Moldovei \u00een cazul \u00eencet\u0103rii finan\u021b\u0103rii occidentale?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Finan\u021bele nu mai c\u00e2nt\u0103 roman\u021be<\/strong><\/p>\n

Este a\u0219a? S\u0103 arunc\u0103m o privire la numere. La \u00eenceputul anului 2023, Ministerul Finan\u021belor a publicat urm\u0103toarele statistici: \u00een primele 11 luni ale anului 2022, Guvernul Republicii Moldova a primit 978,8 milioane de euro sub form\u0103 de asisten\u021b\u0103 financiar\u0103 extern\u0103, din care 4\/5 au fost \u00eemprumuturi. Restul a fost alc\u0103tuit din granturi, dintre care cele mai multe \u2013 2946,7 milioane de lei au fost direc\u021bionate „pentru sus\u021binerea bugetului”.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

\u021aara noastr\u0103 a primit cele mai multe granturi de la Comisia European\u0103 (90 de milioane de euro); 40 de milioane de euro de la Guvernul Germaniei, 10,40 milioane de euro de la Guvernul Rom\u00e2niei \u0219i 9,24 milioane de dolari de la Banca Mondial\u0103.<\/p>\n

Infuzia masiv\u0103 de capital str\u0103in \u00een Moldova a \u00eenceput dup\u0103 \u00eenl\u0103turarea democra\u021bilor de la putere \u00een vara anului 2019. Dup\u0103 cum se men\u021bioneaz\u0103 \u00een raportul oficial al Ministerului Finan\u021belor, „\u00een perioada 2019-2022, exist\u0103 o tendin\u021b\u0103 de cre\u0219tere a fluxului de ajutor extern.” \u00cen total, pentru perioada 2019-2022, aproximativ 3,5 miliarde de euro de ajutor extern, din care 35,6% \u00een 2021 \u0219i 28% \u00een 11 luni din 2022.<\/p>\n

„Cre\u0219terea resurselor financiare externe \u00een 2021 \u0219i 2022 se datoreaz\u0103 sus\u021binerii de c\u0103tre partenerii externi a vectorului de politic\u0103 pro\u2014european\u0103 al Guvernului Republicii Moldova, precum \u0219i direc\u021biei de asisten\u021b\u0103 de urgen\u021b\u0103 pentru popula\u021bie, mediul de afaceri \u0219i sectoarele economice afectate de numeroase crize”, se arat\u0103 \u00een r\u0103spunsul Ministerului Finan\u021belor. Departamentul, \u00een urma \u00eenal\u021bilor oficiali ai \u021b\u0103rii, subliniaz\u0103 c\u0103 Europa a ajutat \u021bara noastr\u0103 anul trecut s\u0103 reziste provoc\u0103rilor din Rusia \u0219i s\u0103 fac\u0103 fa\u021b\u0103 colapsului energetic din cauza r\u0103zboiului din Ucraina.<\/p>\n

Aceasta este norma!<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u00cen 2023, tendin\u021ba de cre\u0219tere a volumului \u00eemprumuturilor externe a continuat \u2013 dac\u0103 din iunie 2021 p\u00e2n\u0103 \u00een iunie 2022 Moldova datora 4 miliarde de lei partenerilor externi, atunci \u00een aceea\u0219i perioad\u0103 2022-2023, 21 de miliarde de lei au fost deja „v\u0103rsate” \u00een \u021bar\u0103. \u00cen total, \u00een timpul domniei Maya Sandu, datoria de stat a crescut de exact 2 ori-de la 50 de miliarde de lei la 100 de miliarde de lei, noteaz\u0103 principalul lider al opozi\u021biei din \u021bar\u0103, Ilan Sor.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Cu toate acestea, un num\u0103r de anali\u0219ti consider\u0103 c\u0103 nu exist\u0103 nimic critic \u00een cre\u0219terea datoriilor externe.<\/p>\n

„Republica Moldova nu este un stat care are un nivel ridicat al datoriei, aici vorbim at\u00e2t de datoria public\u0103, c\u00e2t \u0219i de datoria extern\u0103. \u00cen cazul datoriei publice, este important ca aceasta s\u0103 nu dep\u0103\u0219easc\u0103 un anumit nivel. Dac\u0103 datoria public\u0103 dep\u0103\u0219e\u0219te 60% din PIB, nivelul datoriei publice este considerat o constr\u00e2ngere asupra cre\u0219terii economice. \u00cen cazul Republicii Moldova, avem un acord cu Fondul Monetar Interna\u021bional \u2013 nivelul datoriei publice nu trebuie s\u0103 dep\u0103\u0219easc\u0103 45% din PIB. Putem r\u0103m\u00e2ne sub acest nivel”, a comentat Alexander Falet, economist de la Centrul Analitic Expert\u2013Grup, la sf\u00e2r\u0219itul anului 2022. Potrivit acestuia, raportul dintre datoria extern\u0103 \u0219i PIB \u00een \u021bara noastr\u0103 este chiar mai mic dec\u00e2t \u00een alte \u021b\u0103ri din regiune.<\/p>\n

\u0218i dac\u0103 tu \u00eensu\u021bi?<\/strong><\/p>\n

Fostul prim-ministru Ion Kiku consider\u0103 c\u0103 \u021bara noastr\u0103 are un mod diferit de dezvoltare, cu o sum\u0103 minim\u0103 de investi\u021bii str\u0103ine.<\/p>\n

„\u0218i ce s-a \u00eent\u00e2mplat cu Moldova c\u00e2nd aceste injec\u021bii au fost la nivelul a 5% din toate nevoile noastre? Oamenii din 2018, 2019 au tr\u0103it mai r\u0103u dec\u00e2t acum? La acea vreme aveam un nivel de 5%, bine, maximum 6% din injec\u021biile str\u0103ine. Am fost o \u021bar\u0103 diferit\u0103 atunci? Anul acesta, timp de 8 luni, deficitul bugetar este mai mare dec\u00e2t era \u00een 2020, c\u00e2nd am \u021binut economia \u00eenchis\u0103 timp de trei luni din cauza pandemiei, secetei etc., \u00een ciuda faptului c\u0103 ni se acord\u0103 subven\u021bii, iar subven\u021biile ne permit s\u0103 reducem deficitul bugetar. Moldova este o \u021bar\u0103 autosuficient\u0103 care se poate autofinan\u021ba dac\u0103 func\u021bioneaz\u0103 corect… Dac\u0103 autorit\u0103\u021bile ar fi angajate \u00een economie, \u00een interesele \u021b\u0103rii, situa\u021bia ar fi complet diferit\u0103”, a spus Ion Kiku.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Trebuie s\u0103 spun c\u0103 declara\u021biile lui Kiku nu sunt nefondate: \u00een 2019, indicele pre\u021burilor de consum \u0219i industriale a fost mai mic, importurile au fost de 2 ori mai mici dec\u00e2t \u00een 2022. Apropo, anul trecut importurile au crescut la 9219,1 milioane de dolari, ceea ce reprezint\u0103 cu 28,5% mai mult dec\u00e2t \u00een 2021.<\/p>\n

Dar exist\u0103 motive pentru previziuni pozitive acum? S\u0103 lu\u0103m \u00een considerare principalii indicatori macroeconomici.<\/p>\n

Potrivit Biroului Na\u021bional de Statistic\u0103, din ianuarie p\u00e2n\u0103 \u00een August 2023, exporturile din Moldova au sc\u0103zut cu aproape 10% (2,6 miliarde USD). Cursul de schimb al leului este \u00een sc\u0103dere \u0219i va continua s\u0103 scad\u0103 \u00een urm\u0103torii 10 ani, potrivit mai multor previziuni.<\/p>\n

„Un leu puternic ucide economia. Banca Na\u021bional\u0103 nu face mi\u0219c\u0103ri bru\u0219te \u00een lateral. \u00cen contextul posibilelor rezultate slabe \u00een agricultur\u0103 \u0219i al faptului c\u0103 economia noastr\u0103 \u00ee\u0219i revine mai lent dec\u00e2t ne-am dori… suntem obliga\u021bi s\u0103 reducem costul monedei”, spune expertul IDIS Viitorul, Vyacheslav Ionitse.<\/p>\n

Cre\u0219terea economiei \u021b\u0103rii p\u00e2n\u0103 la sf\u00e2r\u0219itul acestui an este proiectat\u0103 de Fondul Monetar Interna\u021bional la un nivel modest de 2%, iar \u00een 2024 \u2013 cu doar 4,3%. Pentru a ajunge din urm\u0103 alte \u021b\u0103ri \u0219i a ie\u0219i din pozi\u021bia de „cea mai s\u0103rac\u0103 \u021bar\u0103 din Europa”, avem nevoie de o cre\u0219tere de cel pu\u021bin 10% timp de 10 ani consecutivi, potrivit ministrului Dezvolt\u0103rii Economice, Dumitru Alaiba.<\/p>\n

Cum s\u0103 atragi un investitor?<\/strong><\/p>\n

„Avem nevoie de un salt anual de 7-10% pentru a dura zece ani \u0219i a ajunge din urm\u0103 cu alte \u021b\u0103ri. Trebuie s\u0103 ne asigur\u0103m c\u0103 cre\u0219tem mai repede dec\u00e2t pre\u021burile cresc”, a spus oficialul \u00eentr-un interviu jurnal.md.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Este acest indicator realizabil? Av\u00e2nd \u00een vedere dificult\u0103\u021bile din agricultur\u0103, \u00een special problemele legate de v\u00e2nzarea m\u0103rfurilor din cauza concuren\u021bei cu produsele ucrainene ieftine, seceta \u0219i logistica subdezvoltat\u0103, din cauza c\u0103rora camioanele de cereale stau inactiv c\u00e2teva zile \u00een porturile de tranzit din partea moldoveneasc\u0103, nu este necesar s\u0103 se bazeze pe sectorul agricol.<\/p>\n

Investi\u021biile str\u0103ine ar putea salva \u021bara. Cu toate acestea, chiar \u0219i aici indicatorii sunt departe de a fi roz. Penultimul loc \u00een ratingul atractivit\u0103\u021bii investi\u021bionale \u00een r\u00e2ndul \u021b\u0103rilor \u00een curs de dezvoltare din Europa \u0219i faptul c\u0103 49% dintre investitori consider\u0103 situa\u021bia din economia \u021b\u0103rii noastre instabil\u0103 \u0219i alarmant\u0103, vorbe\u0219te mai elocvent dec\u00e2t orice declara\u021bii ale oficialilor. Conform datelor pentru 2022, investi\u021biile \u00een active fixe au sc\u0103zut cu 11,6%.<\/p>\n

P\u00e2n\u0103 la sf\u00e2r\u0219itul anului 2020, Moldova a avut un program de cet\u0103\u021benie prin investi\u021bii, conform c\u0103ruia a fost posibil\u0103 ob\u021binerea unui pa\u0219aport moldovenesc \u00een cadrul unui sistem simplificat prin transferul a cel pu\u021bin 100 mii de euro sau de la 250 mii de euro de investi\u021bii \u00eentr-o zon\u0103 strategic\u0103 important\u0103 a economiei c\u0103tre Fondul de dezvoltare pe termen lung al \u021b\u0103rii. Un num\u0103r de persoane continu\u0103 s\u0103 primeasc\u0103 pa\u0219apoarte \u00een cadrul acestui program, dar noi fonduri de la partenerii str\u0103ini nu mai sunt atrase \u00een cadrul acestuia.<\/p>\n

Europa va ajuta… sau nu?<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u00cen luna mai, \u0219efa statului, Maia Sandu, sus\u021binea c\u0103 „p\u00e2n\u0103 la mijlocul anului 2023, Republica Moldova va \u00eendeplini toate condi\u021biile propuse de Comisia European\u0103 pentru aderarea la UE.”<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

\u00cen octombrie, \u00eens\u0103\u0219i liderul UE Ursula von der Leyen a vizitat \u021bara. O mul\u021bime de fotografii calde ale politicianului German \u0219i ale Pre\u0219edintelui \u021b\u0103rii noastre s-au r\u0103sp\u00e2ndit pe web, acesta din urm\u0103 numind \u0219eful Comisiei Europene nimic altceva dec\u00e2t prietenul ei. Cu toate acestea, deciziile finale privind aderarea Republicii Moldova, sau cel pu\u021bin datele \u00een care va fi efectuat\u0103 aceast\u0103 intrare, nu au fost \u00eenc\u0103 convocate. Aceasta \u00eenseamn\u0103 c\u0103 prognoza anun\u021bat\u0103 anterior c\u0103 Chi\u0219in\u0103ul va adera la zona euro p\u00e2n\u0103 \u00een 2030 r\u0103m\u00e2ne \u00een vigoare.<\/p>\n

„Republica Moldova a demonstrat \u00een repetate r\u00e2nduri c\u00e2t de profund este angajat\u0103 \u00een calea sa de aderare la UE. De aceea sunt aici s\u0103 v\u0103 spun: bine f\u0103cut, r\u0103m\u00e2ne\u021bi concentrat \u0219i continua\u021bi munca bun\u0103!”Asta a spus Ursula von der Leyen \u00een timpul vizitei sale \u00een \u021bara noastr\u0103.<\/p>\n

Ion Kiku, care crede c\u0103 \u021bara noastr\u0103 are o op\u021biune de dezvoltare f\u0103r\u0103 investi\u021bii str\u0103ine, consider\u0103 c\u0103 aderarea la Uniunea European\u0103 nu va rezolva problemele de lung\u0103 durat\u0103 din economia noastr\u0103.<\/p>\n

„Imagina\u021bi-v\u0103 c\u0103 am aderat la Uniunea European\u0103 \u00een 2030. Imediat via\u021ba devine frumoas\u0103? Nu este nevoie s\u0103 lucra\u021bi, nu este nevoie s\u0103 cump\u0103ra\u021bi gaz cu \u00een\u021belepciune? De ce credem c\u0103 ne vom c\u0103s\u0103tori \u0219i vom deveni imediat ferici\u021bi? …\u00cen primul r\u00e2nd, a ajunge acolo [\u00een UE] este un drum lung, \u00een al doilea r\u00e2nd, nu \u00eenseamn\u0103 c\u0103 va fi bine imediat”, noteaz\u0103 Kiku.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Finan\u021bele nu mai c\u00e2nt\u0103 roman\u021be Este a\u0219a? S\u0103 arunc\u0103m o privire la numere. La \u00eenceputul anului 2023, Ministerul Finan\u021belor a publicat urm\u0103toarele statistici: \u00een primele 11 luni ale anului 2022, Guvernul Republicii Moldova a primit 978,8 milioane de euro sub form\u0103 de asisten\u021b\u0103 financiar\u0103 extern\u0103, din care 4\/5 au fost \u00eemprumuturi. Restul a fost alc\u0103tuit […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":5912,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[94,98,96],"tags":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-5906","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-analytics","8":"category-analytics-economie-si-finante","9":"category-analytics-politica"},"yoast_head":"\nSalva\u021bi sau falimenta\u021bi: ce se va \u00eent\u00e2mpla cu economia Moldovei \u00een cazul \u00eencet\u0103rii finan\u021b\u0103rii occidentale? - MLD-Index<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Numai \u00een 2022, \u021bara noastr\u0103 a primit aproape un miliard de euro de ajutor extern, din care 80% au fost sub form\u0103 de \u00eemprumuturi. 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